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Technical charts indicate that Nifty and Bank Nifty are currently poised for an upward trend. According to technical analysts, Nifty may ascend towards 22,800 levels, while Bank Nifty could touch 48,500 levels. Stocks such as Sun Pharma, Hero MotoCorp, Tata Steel, Britannia, Divi’s Lab, HDFC Life, PI Industries, Praj Industries, and Sona BLW have exhibited bullish structures, suggesting promising investment opportunities, said analysts.JATIN GEDIA ANALYST, SHAREKHANWhere is Nifty headed? Nifty has a short-term bottom at 21,710 and has its eyes set on a new all-time high with a potential to stretch higher till 23,000–23,100 from a one-month perspective. The daily momentum indicator has triggered a fresh positive crossover which is a buy signal and also suggests that minor pull-backs should be bought into. A dip towards 22,270–22,250 support should be used as a buying opportunity for immediate target of 22,670 –22,700 during the week. A slip below 22,160 would lead to a consolidation phase; however, the probability appears low. What should investors do? The rally in the benchmark index shall have a rub-off effect on midcap and smallcap stocks as well, though it is likely to be selective ahead of the result season kicking off during the second half of April. We expect the positive momentum to continue in realty, infrastructure and auto, while FMCG stocks could be the dark horse for the week. Buy Britannia at Rs 4,911 with a stop loss of Rs 4,830 for a target of Rs 5,112–5,266. Buy Divi’s Lab at Rs 3,445, stop loss of Rs 3,409 for a target of Rs 3,577–3,653.KAPIL SHAH ANALYST, EMKAY GLOBALWhere is Nifty headed? In the event the index rises above 22,500, it may experience further upward movement up to 22,700 to 22,800. Short-term bulls are recommended to hold their position above 22,000, while a mid-term stance would require a hold above 21,700. The RSI reading for Nifty is at 57, indicating room for further improvement. For Bank Nifty, its technical structure favours a bullish view as it trades within a rising channel and takes support at its long-term moving average. Bank Nifty will remain bullish if it maintains above 46,500, with the potential for reaching its alltime high level of 48,500. What should investors do? According to the seasonal trend of strategic indices, mid- and small-cap stocks are expected to benefit at the start of April. Overall, Nifty and Bank Nifty are in positions that suggest a potential upward trend. Trade opportunities in auto, midcap and smallcap stocks may be worth exploring. Among these, HDFC Life, PI Industries, Praj Industries, and Sona BLW have bullish structures.BHAVIK PATEL ANALYST, TRADEBULLS SECURITIESWhere is Nifty headed? Nifty has continuously shown a bullish price structure, which is characterised by higher-top-higher-bottom formations on monthly chart. On the daily chart, however, the rejection from the highs of 22,500 does show a strong supply zone where previously also the index witnessed profit booking. The outperformance of midcap and smallcap is heartening, showing broader participation, but there is a loss of momentum at higher levels. What should investors do? It’s ideal to retain the buy-on dips strategy and refrain from chasing momentum, given frothy valuations in many of the index heavyweights. Underperformance in banking stocks is likely to continue, and investors should focus on top auto and pharma stocks, which are showing signs of revival. Buy Hero Motocorp at around Rs 4,650 for target of Rs 4,800 with a stop loss of Rs 4,550. Buy Sun Pharma, target Rs 1,750, stop loss at Rs 1,580. Commodity prices continue to trade higher, which will be reflected in metal stocks. Buy Tata Steel at Rs 146, target Rs 162, stop loss Rs 140. It is advisable to have a strict stop loss strategy for the Nifty below 21,950 on a closing basis.

Mumbai: Indian equities may have to rely on domestic flows to propel equities to new highs at the start of the new financial year as overseas fund managers appear hesitant to commit big money at this point due to concerns over rich valuations. Market participants say foreign investors are bullish about the country's prospects but are holding back a bit with uncertainty over the US Federal Reserve's interest rate actions looming and because of the National Elections.Foreign investors bought Indian equities worth ₹35,286.31 in March after making purchases to the tune of ₹1,537 crore in February. Their activity in April in the past 10 years shows mixed trends. They bought on six occasions and sold on four. 108927758"A large part of the foreign inflows in March was driven by IPOs and block deals which offer foreign investors to invest in Indian markets at a discount," said Pratik Gupta, CEO, Kotak Securities. "However, April is likely to witness fewer deals and IPOs going into earnings and election season."Gupta does not anticipate a "big flurry of foreign inflows at current levels since foreign investors still view India as an expensive bet."The Sensex and Nifty came close to hitting all-time highs on Thursday as some late selling ahead of the long weekend eroded early gains. Both the indices could however touch new milestones this week helped by continued flows from domestic institutions coupled with the absence of big outflows from foreigners."While there was no noticeable level of nervousness among foreign investors in March, steady and moderate flows appear likely in April with no big selloffs expected," said UR Bhat, co-founder, Alphaniti.Analysts said investors will watch the direction of the dollar in the short-term in the wake of the US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks on Friday that the central bank was in no hurry to cut interest rates amid persisting inflationary pressure. Lower interest rates in the US benefit emerging market equities, like India, as a resultant weaker dollar and falling bond yields would prompt foreign investors to look for better returns elsewhere.“The US Bond Yields had a declining trend but have moved up in March especially in the last one week,” said Gupta. “The up move can be attributed to the surprise on higher-than-expected US inflation data.”The 10-year US treasury yield stood at 4.20% on Friday, 0.09% up from the previous day and declined 1.04% in March. While the US Fed maintained the interest rates at 5.25-5.5% in its March policy meeting, it reiterated the likelihood of three interest rate cuts later this year. Wall Street is expecting the first rate cut in June.“The movement in dollar and the US Bond yields are temporary aberrations and a rate cut by the US Fed in the latter half of the year could lead to increased foreign flows into Indian markets,” said Bhat.Analysts said the upcoming earnings season could be a trigger for foreign flows but the geo-political tensions could soften risk appetite. “In the short term, earnings could be a trigger for foreign flows but their moves are expected to be stock-specific,” said Gupta.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to keep interest rates unchanged this week as it weighs both robust domestic economic growth prospects amid prickly food inflation and a delayed start to the now-evident shallower monetary easing cycle in the US, where policymakers have already announced fewer reductions next year than indicated by earlier dot plots. An ET poll of 14 respondents said the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50% at the conclusion of the panel's three-day meeting on April 5. This would mark the seventh consecutive time the rate-setting committee is expected to maintain the repo rate at its current level. All Eyes on Rains The repo rate is the rate at which the RBI lends to banks. "The policy stance is unlikely to be changed before the August 2024 MPC review, until there is visibility on the monsoon turnout, the sustenance of the growth momentum and the US Fed's rate decisions," said Aditi Nayar, chief economist, Icra. "Consequently, the earliest rate cut is only likely in the October 2024 meeting."A majority of the respondents also predicted a status quo on the RBI's monetary policy stance of withdrawal of accommodation, with several economists saying the central bank would prefer to observe the progress of the monsoon before demonstrating any tilt toward a softer monetary policy.India's Consumer Price Index inflation was at 5.09% in February, steady versus 5.10% a month ago, latest data showed. While the headline retail price gauge is within the MPC's 2-6% tolerance band, it still remains some distance away from the 4% target. Over the past few months, RBI governor Shaktikanta Das has repeatedly said the central bank is committed to driving inflation down to the 4% target - not just within the tolerance band. As has been the case for several months now, food inflation remained volatile in February, imparting upward pressure on the headline consumer price gauge. However, core inflation, which strips out food and fuel, has displayed a downward trajectory.Inflation risks"On inflation, there will be a lot of comfort around core inflation, but they might talk about supply risks, particularly from the global situation, the geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea, and the weather-related variations that continue. It's going to be a policy that will be very 'status quoist'," said Rahul Bajoria, head of emerging markets Asia economics, Barclays.Key inflation risks include dwindling reservoir levels, price increases by fast-moving consumer goods companies and persistently elevated inflation in certain areas such as education, Bank of Baroda's chief economist Madan Sabnavis said. Last week, reports quoted the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Centre as saying that India may receive above-average rainfall during July-September.

Mumbai: Lenders will seek advice from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on shielding the identities of officers who spot wilful defaulters and build cases against errant borrowers, said bankers aware of the development. A recent High Court order has directed banks to name the employees on committees identifying a borrower as a wilful defaulter.The division bench order about Milind Patel, director of IFIN versus Union Bank of India, also asked the bank to provide the petitioner full access to the relevant documents and material on record. This is yet another contentious issue between lenders and the borrower. The Union Bank had argued that it is not obliged to provide evidence to the borrower as per the RBI guidelines. Lenders will seek RBI's guidance on this issue, too, the bankers cited above said.The bank management lobby, the Indian Banks Association (IBA), will soon seek advice on ways to address this issue.The RBI has issued draft guidelines on the process that banks must follow in tagging a borrower as a wilful defaulter, and final guidelines have yet to be issued. The RBI draft norms stress the need to give the borrower an in-person hearing and put in place an identification and review committee. However, the draft guidelines do not mention naming the employees on the committee. Banks are concerned mainly because High Court and apex court orders would supersede a banking regulator's guidelines."The lender teams that take the decisions consist of salaried staff members. The borrowers being questioned are almost always well-to-do businessmen, who have, on a personal basis, significant access to financial and other resources," said Sanjay Agarwal, senior director at CareEdge Ratings. He also felt that it is likely to adversely impact the lenders, as the officials involved risk being personally named and possibly targeted by the borrowers.“The process integrity can be questioned by the regulators. But exposing the process itself weakens it,” he added.Union Bank of India, the respondent in this case, is unlikely to appeal against the order, one of the persons cited above said. Thus, it could set a precedent for other defaulting borrowers, the same person said. At the heart of the matter is an apprehension that the order could result in litigant borrowers making direct allegations against the employees, claiming that they are biased and dragging them to the courts.“In India, such cases can go on for years, they cause undue harassment, and in the meanwhile, the employee may even retire,” said a senior banker.The High Court order said: “Banks and financial institutions that seek to invoke the Master Circular to declare the occurrence of wilful default must identify the members of the Identification Committee and the members of the Review Committee and share the reasoned orders passed by such committees.”

Mumbai: Lenders will seek advice from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on shielding the identities of officers who spot wilful defaulters and build cases against errant borrowers, said bankers aware of the development. A recent High Court order has directed banks to name the employees on committees identifying a borrower as a wilful defaulter.The division bench order about Milind Patel, director of IFIN versus Union Bank of India, also asked the bank to provide the petitioner full access to the relevant documents and material on record. This is yet another contentious issue between lenders and the borrower. The Union Bank had argued that it is not obliged to provide evidence to the borrower as per the RBI guidelines. Lenders will seek RBI's guidance on this issue, too, the bankers cited above said.The bank management lobby, the Indian Banks Association (IBA), will soon seek advice on ways to address this issue.The RBI has issued draft guidelines on the process that banks must follow in tagging a borrower as a wilful defaulter, and final guidelines have yet to be issued. The RBI draft norms stress the need to give the borrower an in-person hearing and put in place an identification and review committee. However, the draft guidelines do not mention naming the employees on the committee. Banks are concerned mainly because High Court and apex court orders would supersede a banking regulator's guidelines."The lender teams that take the decisions consist of salaried staff members. The borrowers being questioned are almost always well-to-do businessmen, who have, on a personal basis, significant access to financial and other resources," said Sanjay Agarwal, senior director at CareEdge Ratings. He also felt that it is likely to adversely impact the lenders, as the officials involved risk being personally named and possibly targeted by the borrowers.