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UBS on Wednesday posted better than expected first-quarter net profit, but the Swiss bank warned of an uncertain outlook as U.S. tariffs raise global growth fears even as the market tumult drove up earnings in its trading activity. Switzerland's biggest bank reported net profit attributable to shareholders of $1.7 billion in the first quarter of 2025, down from $1.8 billion a year earlier, but beating an average estimate of $1.3 billion in a company-provided poll of analysts. In its investment banking division, global markets enjoyed a record quarter with revenues up 32% year-on-year, underpinned by higher client activity in equities and foreign exchange, UBS said. The outlook was more muted, however, as the backdrop of U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs raised uncertainty. "The prospect of higher tariffs on global trade presents a material risk to global growth and inflation, clouding the interest rate outlook," UBS said. UBS expected net interest income in its global wealth management business to decline sequentially by a low-single-digit percentage in the second quarter of 2025 and anticipated a similar decline in its Swiss business. Continued market uncertainty could delay corporate deals, the bank added. "With a wide range of possible outcomes, the economic path forward is particularly unpredictable," UBS said, adding that a likely further period of volatility in markets could prompt investors to put off decisions on strategy and capital allocation. The bank reconfirmed its share repurchase program for 2025, saying it had bought back $0.5 billion in shares in the first quarter and reserved another $2.5 billion for the remainder of the year, despite the uncertain outlook. The market turmoil comes on top of plans by Swiss authorities to make UBS hold more capital, which have weighed on the bank's shares, with government proposals for a banking regulation overhaul expected in June. Authorities have pledged to draw up stricter banking regulations to prevent a repeat of the meltdown of Credit Suisse in 2023, which was acquired by UBS in an emergency takeover. Integration of Credit Suisse's business remained on track, UBS said, adding it had delivered further $0.9 billion in exit rate gross cost savings and brought cumulative cost reductions to $8.4 billion, achieving 65% of the targeted cuts of $13 billion. UBS reduced its workforce by almost 2,000 full-time equivalents in the first quarter, the results showed, taking the total to just under 107,000 full-time equivalents by the end of March.

The fourth quarter earnings season is picking up momentum and on Wednesday as many as 52 companies will announce their quarterly numbers. Key earnings to watch out include from Vedanta, Adani Power, IOC and Varun Beverages.Apart from the above Federal Bank, Forbes & Company, Go Fashion (India), Godrej Agrovet, Greaves Cotton, Orient Green Power Company among others will also declare their results.Vedanta Q4 expectationsMetal major Vedanta is expected to report a strong year-on-year growth in its March quarter net profit according to estimates given by four brokerages. The uptick is seen in a wide range of 116% to 141% YoY with the bottom line of Rs 3,287 crore - Rs 5,340 crore. The revenue from operations in Q4FY25 is expected between 6.5% and 11% over the corresponding quarter of the last financial year.The estimates of Nuvama Institutional Equities, ICICI Securities, Kotak Institutional Equities and Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) have been taken into account.The net profit is expected to fall on a quarter-on-quarter basis amid cost pressures. Margins are also expected to take a sequential hit due to higher costs in the aluminum segment and mixed trends in commodity prices.Street will be keeping an eye on the management commentary around its demerger plans and regarding its debts.Nuvama said that Vedanta’s likely EBITDA decrease on a sequential basis will be due to mixed bag metal price changes as aluminium inched up by 0.8% QoQ while zinc decreased 7% QoQ.“Higher alumina cost shall increase aluminium CoP by 5% QoQ. Zinc CoP is likely to further decrease 2% QoQ. We expect aluminium/power/O&G EBITDA to decrease by 2.6%/2.1%/4.2% QoQ while Zinc India/international zinc to rise by 0.2%/1.8% QoQ,” it said.Kotak sees Vedanta’s January-March quarter net profit at Rs 3,287 crore, reflecting a significant 141% YoY growth. However, the PAT may decline 7% sequentially. Meanwhile, revenue may be reported at Rs 39,173 crore, which could be an increase of 10.3% YoY.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)

Mumbai: Shares of companies operating in the defence sector were among the top gainers in a flat market on Tuesday as the heightened conflict between India and Pakistan boosted investor appetite. Paras Defence soared 20% on Tuesday, while Data Patterns (India) and Garden Reach Shipbuilders and Engineers surged 14.9% and 12.3% respectively. Cochin Shipyard and Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders jumped 10% and 8.7% each. Unimech Aerospace and Manufacturing and DCX Systems India gained over 6%. Hindustan Aeronautics rose 4.15% and Bharat Electronics moved 4% higher. Analysts said these stocks could gain about 10-15% further from these levels also on expectations of strong fourth quarter results.120746179"Tensions between India and Pakistan are pushing the defence stocks higher as investors are sentimentally positive on these stocks," said Manish Chowdhury, head of research, StoxBox.“Given the good numbers reported by Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders, other companies are also expected to post strong results this quarter.” The fresh conflict is perceived to boost government spending for defence, resulting in higher orders. Out of 18 stocks on Nifty India Defence Index, 17 advanced and 1 declined on Tuesday. The Nifty India Defence Index gained for the second straight session on Tuesday, advancing 5% on Tuesday after moving 4% higher on Monday. The benchmark Nifty has risen 1.2% in the previous two trading sessions. Siddartha Khemka, head of retail research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said the Rafale deal between India and France for 26 aircrafts worth `63,000 crore and reports on allocation of Rs 25,000 crore for the maritime development fund announced in the Budget have contributed to the recent jump in defence stocks. “Further upside potential of around 10-15% exists in these stocks in the near term as defense spending is likely to go up and the results are anticipated to be strong this quarter,” said Khemka. “Investors with a 2-3-year investment horizon can also buy in the space.”