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China's consumer prices rose for the first time in six months, providing some reprieve for the world's second-biggest economy, which faces sluggish demand, a property slump and high local government debt, although producer prices dropped. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.7% year-on-year in February, after the steepest fall of 0.8% in over 14 years in January, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Saturday. The CPI rose 1.0% month-on-month from a 0.3% uptick in January. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a 0.3% gain year-on-year and 0.7% growth month-on-month. The producer price index (PPI) fell 2.7% from a year earlier in February from a 2.5% fall the previous month. That was faster than a 2.5% decline forecast in the Reuters poll. China has been grappling with sub-par growth over the past year and policymakers have pledged to roll out further measures after the steps implemented since June had only a modest effect.

Federal Reserve policymakers weighing when to start interest-rate cuts got another reason Friday to sit tight for now, after a government report showed jobs growth surged in February but the overall labor market continued to show signs of cooling. Employers added a robust 275,000 jobs last month, a Labor Department report showed on Friday, handily beating the 200,000 that economists expected. Still, the report's revisions of prior months' estimates showed smaller job gains in January and December than had earlier been thought, suggesting that a long-anticipated slowing in job gains is underway. The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, its highest in two years, though still below levels the Fed sees as sustainable in the long-run. And wage growth has continued to edge down, rising 4.3% in February from a year earlier, down from 4.4% in January. Fed policymakers won't see that growth as consistent yet with their 2% inflation goal, but it is moving in the right direction. In testimony on Capitol Hill this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he feels the economy is healthy and policymakers are "not far" from having enough confidence on inflation's downward direction to start reducing interest rates. Friday's signs that the labor market is still strong but easing slowly "will provide reassurance to the Fed that real economic conditions remain broadly consistent with inflation converging durably towards 2%, and it will be appropriate to cut by June," said Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha. Futures contracts that settle to the Fed policy rate now point to an 80% chance the Fed will start cutting interest-rates by mid-June, up from 75% before the report, with a little more than a one-in-four chance of a May 1 start, about the same as before the report. Traders firmed up their expectations for a full percentage point of rate cuts by the end of the year, the equivalent of four quarter-point reductions over the remaining seven Fed policysetting meetings this year.

Gold prices surged to a fresh record high on Friday as data showing a rise in the U.S. unemployment rate boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates soon. Spot gold rose 0.7% to $2,173.49 per ounce by 10:42 a.m. ET (1542 GMT), while U.S. gold futures added 0.7% to $2,180.50. Bullion was on track to post its biggest weekly percentage increase since mid-October. Gold reached an all-time high of $2,185.19 after a report showed a rise in the U.S. unemployment rate and a moderation in wage gains despite job growth acceleration in February. "We still believe the same underlying premise remains, which is the combination of the expectation that the Fed is still going to cut rates later this year and dollar weakness," said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. The dollar index was 0.3% lower, making gold cheaper for overseas buyers, while the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury fell to a more than one-month low. Traders boosted bets the Fed could start cutting interest rates in May to around 30% after the jobs report, although June remained the mostly likely scenario at 80%. Gold began its record run on Tuesday when it surpassed its December peak, primarily aided by growing indications of cooling price pressures and its traditional safe-haven cachet. Low interest rates are supportive for gold prices as they reduce the opportunity cost of holding bullion. "This (jobs) report will be seen as one that keeps the Fed on course for June. Gold prices will continue to trend higher overall, though a short consolidation may be necessary," said Tai Wong, a New York-based independent metals trader. Spot silver eased 0.3% to $24.25, while platinum was down 0.5% to $913.95 per ounce, and palladium lost 0.6% to $1,027.25. All were set for weekly gains.

“Given the current scenario, deploying 80% of the equity allocation through weekly STP over the next 8-10 weeks is advisable, with the remaining allocation to be adjusted post-election, depending on the prevailing conditions. STP/SIP remains the preferred route for investing,” says Kshitiz Mahajan, CEO of Complete Circle Wealth.In an interview with ETMarkets, Mahajan said: “Individuals in the 30-40 age bracket, with no short-term goals, should focus on building emergency funds equivalent to 12-18 months of expenses, followed by an 80% allocation to equities,” Edited excerpts:Q: The Indian market hits fresh record highs in February 2024 with the Nifty reaching the 22K mark. As we step into the last month of the financial year, history suggests that the Nifty has given a positive return in 4 out of the last 10 years. Where are markets headed?A: Indeed, markets have been on a secular bull run for the past four years, and recent GDP numbers, along with the digitalization of financial savings, have further propelled this trend.Retail participation in equity markets has been increasing steadily, reaching significant levels. In January, almost 46.7 lakh mutual fund folios and 46.84 lakh Demat accounts were opened, providing a substantial boost to equity markets through domestic inflows.With the upcoming elections, indications point towards India getting a stable government. However, predicting short-term market movements is challenging. Nonetheless, in the long term, we anticipate a robust pace of asset compounding supported by good governance, strong GDP growth rates, and a focus on manufacturing.Q: GDP data for the March quarter was released last week. What does the data suggest about the overall health of the economy, RBI's outlook on rates, and its impact on markets?A: The actual performance of the economy has consistently surpassed expectations, with structural transformations underway in both physical and digital infrastructure, along with an inclusive agenda boosting purchasing power. This is a very positive sign for India, as reflected in the revised GDP growth estimate for FY24, now at 7.6%.The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has chosen to maintain the status quo on interest rates, keeping the repo rates unchanged at 6.5%, a continuation of its approach aimed at curbing inflation while maintaining economic stability.Despite concerns about food inflation, core inflation shows signs of softening, prompting a positive market response.Q: Given that we are trading near record highs, are you fully invested, or have you taken some money off to be deployed later?A: We are almost fully invested in our portfolios, maintaining 4-6% cash across them. We seek top-ups for investing in undervalued businesses or for tactical buying, ensuring some liquidity for our clients while remaining prepared for opportunities.Q: How should investors be positioned for FY25, and what should be the ideal asset allocation for individuals aged 30-40 years?A: Investors should adhere to their asset allocation strategy based on age, risk tolerance, goals, and time horizon. Individuals in the 30-40 age bracket, with no short-term goals, should focus on building emergency funds equivalent to 12-18 months of expenses, followed by an 80% allocation to equities.Given the current scenario, deploying 80% of the equity allocation through weekly STP over the next 8-10 weeks is advisable, with the remaining allocation to be adjusted post-election, depending on the prevailing conditions. STP/SIP remains the preferred route for investing.Q: Oil & gas, Energy, and PSU Index rose more than 30% in the last 3 months. What is driving this rally?A: These sectors, historically underperforming, are witnessing growth driven by the government's focus on clean energy and the recovery of bad assets, particularly in the PSU space.However, there is froth in small and micro-cap segments and specific sectors like defense, railways, and PSU banks. Investors should exercise caution, considering valuation metrics and expected earnings rather than following a herd mentality.Q: Will dividend-paying stocks be a better play to beat volatility in FY25? What percentage of the portfolio should be placed in dividend stocks?A: Yes, allocating 10-15% of the portfolio to high dividend-paying stocks is advisable. However, investors should prioritize businesses with clean management to avoid losses in share price despite receiving dividends.Q: What role will debt play in the next few years, and do you foresee debt portfolios gaining popularity in retail and HNI circles?A: Fixed income is expected to yield capital gains from rate cuts over the next 1-1.5 years, potentially offering double-digit pre-tax returns. Parking debt allocations in gilt/debt funds with a modified duration exceeding 7 years could be lucrative, providing both coupon and capital gains. This differs from fixed deposits, where gains are solely from interest income.Q: After Lakshadweep, PM Modi indicated deep water tourism. Any particular company(s) that could benefit from the move?A: We favor companies like ITC and Lemon Tree in our portfolio. Additionally, we are monitoring construction companies, tiles, cement, and FMCG companies for potential benefits from the deep water tourism initiative.Q: We have seen many SME IPOs hitting D-Street compared to the mainboard so far in 2024. How do you evaluate this trend? Is it a good sign or a sign of caution?A: We are cautious about this trend due to rich valuations and limited liquidity, especially during market corrections. It's prudent to wait for valuations to normalize before considering investments in SME IPOs.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)

U.S. job growth accelerated in February, but a rise in the unemployment rate and moderation in wage gains kept on the table an anticipated interest rate cut in June from the Federal Reserve. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 275,000 jobs last month, the labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its closely watched employment report on Friday. Data for January was revised down to show 229,000 jobs created instead of 353,000 as previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 200,000 jobs added, with estimates ranging from 125,000 to 286,000. Payrolls are above the roughly 100,000 jobs needed per month to keep up with growth in the working age population. The labor market is supporting the economy, which is outperforming its global peers. Economists do not expect a recession this year. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% in February after holding at 3.7% for three straight months. Despite a rash of high-profile layoffs at the start of the year, employers are generally holding on to their workers after struggling to find labor during the COVID-19 pandemic. Though labor supply and demand are falling back into balance, amid a rise in immigration and older workers delaying retirement, some sectors of the economy remain desperate for skilled workers. There were 1.45 open jobs for every unemployed person in January, still above the average of 1.2 during the year before the pandemic, government data showed this week. The Fed's Beige Book report also showed "difficulties persisted attracting workers for highly skilled positions" in February. Average hourly earnings edged up 0.1% last month after gaining 0.5% in January. That lowered the year-on-year increase in wages to a still-high 4.3% in February from 4.4% in January. Fed Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers this week that rate cuts would "likely be appropriate" later this year, but emphasized they "really will depend on the path of the economy."